November 30, 2005 by lonbud
Lather, Rinse, Repeat
President Bush made yet another “major policy” speech on the war in Iraq today, accompanied by the release of his National Strategy for Victory in Iraq, a 35 page document attractively bound in a cover of red, white, and blue.
In his speech, the President repeated mantras about the “shared ideology” between the terrorists who attacked the U.S. in 2001 and those who continue to ravage American forces and Iraqi civil society on a daily basis today. He reasserted his conviction that “this is hard work” and that “we are making progress” and that one day a “free Iraq” will stand as a beacon to the entire Middle East and the world.
He was less clear, however, about how we may expect things to go in the meantime.
The President’s speech before the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, MD was mainly a re-tread of the same assurances he and his administration have been making for most of the past two years, after he stood on the deck of the USS Lincoln and declared the “mission accomplished, ” and after the absence of any real “strategy for victory” became more and more apparent.
The National Strategy document released today is an unclassified version of the “strategy” that has been guiding the American effort all along, designed, apparently, to counter the administration’s sinking stature in opinion polls reporting the number of Americans with confidince in the President’s handling of the Iraq adventure.
Again, the President implored, “this is hard work,” “we are making progress,” “the Iraqis will take over soon,” “trust me, you’ll see.”
The wheels of history roll slowly, to be sure, and it may be too soon to tell whether Mr. Bush will be seen to have ridden a chariot on them through an Arc de Triumph, or whether he’ll be portrayed as having been crushed under their relentless path — but one clue in his speech today suggests he may be slightly off in the calculation of his own potential fame and grandeur.
Echoing a theme prevalent among the administration and its supporters in the run-up to war — when Saddam Hussein and the threat of his henceforth undiscovered weapons of mass destruction were likened to Adolph Hitler and the threat of Nazi totalitarianism that begat World War II — the President again today evoked that war, and sought to compare the idea of American withdrawal from Iraq with what might have happened had we withdrawn from World War II before Hitler and Nazi Germany were crushed.
This is such a facile and inappropriate analogy, it’s both incredible the President still gets away with making it, and telling as to the depths of delusion under which he and his administration continue to operate.
Let’s be clear here:
Hitler commanded a sophisticated, well-equipped, relentless fighting force with obvious designs on dominating as much of the globe as it could tear asunder. Saddam controlled a rag-tag band of ill-equipped, under-fed toy soldiers who disappeared into the desert sands and the reeds of the Tigris and Euphrates at the first sign of any real opposition to Saddam’s megalomaniacal fantasies.
Millions and millions of Americans joined the war effort and willingly sacraficed en masse to defeat Germany and Japan in World War II; the country was joined by allied forces from countries throughout the world against the axis powers in that war.
Aside from the negligible contributions of a few symbolic allies, the Iraq adventure has been a creation and production of the U.S. military alone. And the only Americans who have willingly sacraficed anything in this war are the 2100 plus dead, and many tens of thousands of wounded American soldiers who are the true casualties (along with uncounted thousands of Iraqi civilians) of George W. Bush’s hubris.
One actual new “stratgey” out of the Bush camp recently, came on the wings of an “epiphany” Secretary of State Donald Rumsfeld had over the weekend. From here on out, we ought to stop calling them “insurgents” because “You know, that gives them a greater legitimacy than they seem to merit,” according to Mr. Rumsfeld. If we call them “enemies of the legitimate Iraqi government” it will “turn the tide in the struggle in freedom’s favor.”
As Mr. Bush said today, critics of this war are “flat wrong” if they claim “we’re not learning from our experience or adjusting our tactics to meet the challenges on the ground.”
Sort of like the strategic initiative the administration floated several months ago, which held the war would go better if the press would just stop reporting on all the negative things happening in Iraq every day.
Some of the things the President did not mention today, and which have seen scant attention in the press, are the increasing activity of death squads and a continuing program of torture and inhumane treatment of prisoners as “strategies” in the turning of freedom’s tide.
While Mr. Bush may believe he’s got a National Strategy for Victory in Iraq, he’ll be leaving his successors the task of coming up with one for healing the deep divisions he’s created in the country at home, and for repairing America’s tarnished reputation abroad.
Tam O’Tellico - December 1, 2005 @ 6:20 pm
Saint George and the Dragon
A Fractured Fairy Tale
Once upon a time, in a land far, far away, there lived a young man named George. George was of royal lineage, and as is all too often the case with young men of privilege, his youth was marked by a prolonged adolescence. Having done nothing to earn his advantages in life, he did not appreciate or honor them. Instead, he pursued a life of indolence and dissipation.
Concerned by his son’s lack of discipline, his father packed him off to a private boarding school where he might be encouraged to develop a stalwart character and be trained up in the ways of nobility. Alas, George viewed this as an opportunity to escape his father’s watchful eye, and he squandered his days in wretched idleness and frivolity.
Having misspent his youth, George nevertheless was enrolled in the finest university in the land to be educated in a manner befitting royalty. But once again, George chose Pleasure over Plato and wasted this golden opportunity to acquaint himself with an essential knowledge of history, philosophy and the arts. Perhaps this failure explains why throughout his days, George disdained books and denigrated learning.
As George grew into manhood, the kingdom became embroiled in a war in a faraway, foreign land. Custom demanded that men of George’s station enter the military and proudly lead the country’s troops into battle. But George did not heed the call and chose instead to stay far from the battle and pursue the pleasures of the flesh.
Commoners did not have such recourse, and they were dragged off to fight and die in a suspect war while George shirked his duty. But commoners have their own ways of dealing with the peccadilloes of the privileged, and in dingy taverns all around the kingdom, returning soldiers could be heard singing a crude ditty:
Georgie Porgie, puddin’ and pie
Kissed the girls and made them cry
When the boys came out to fight
Georgie Porgie was not in sight
Wind of George’s wounded reputation did not escape his father’s ears, and arrangements were quietly made to dress him up in a uniform and give him a commission in the home-guard, where he would remain far from danger. But since George was so totally lacking in discipline, he soon reverted to his dissolute ways and abandoned even this token attempt at fulfilling his duty.
Once the war was over, George could safely pursue his other interests. Besides the pleasures of the flesh, his only other real interest was amassing power and wealth. To that end, he used his father’s considerable influence and borrowed money to engage in several highly speculative ventures which paid him an enormous sum, given his lack of experience or qualifications.
But alas, the habits of his youth doomed him to failure time and again, and one of his financial misadventures ended with George barely escaping the courts and the jailer’s key. And of course, his dalliance with intoxicating spirits and mind-altering potions continued unabated. All this left George’s father to wonder whether this was merely youthful exuberance to be outgrown or evidence that George would turn out to be an embarrassment to himself and to his noble family.
Failure having become his closest friend, even George began to question himself. But as the story is told, while walking along the seashore lost in self-doubt, George stumbled upon a prophet who offered him solace and words of wisdom. George, he promised, could atone for all his past sins and failures if he believed there was goodness inside him. If he acknowledged that goodness, it would lead him to greatness. All he need do is unflinchingly follow his every noble instinct.
His self-esteem magically restored, George vowed to do exactly that, and so it was that he decided to turn to the last refuge of all monumental failures – government. But despite the advantage of his name and his money, his reputation had preceded him, and here, too, his first efforts ended in failure.
But fortune was about to smile upon George once again. The king, Ronald the Gipper, had become unsound of mind and was given to seeking the advice of soothsayers and ruled the kingdom by the divinings of astrologers. So the old king was exiled to an alien place called California, and George’s father assumed the throne.
Now all the naysayers who had anticipated the worst for George began to pay him homage even though he had done nothing to earn their obsequiousness. Thus they hoped to curry favor with him and his father.
But quite unexpectedly, George’s father was deposed and replaced by William the Slick, a pathological liar and ravager of women. The noble and wealthy of the kingdom were so incensed at this pretender to the throne that they hounded him like a harlot throughout his reign. But while they publicly feigned indignation and even clamored to seek his removal from the throne, in the secret recesses of their districts and precincts, they cast their lot and their ballots with him, for lo, he had replenished the coffers of the kingdom and lined their purses mightily with gold.
It might have been expected that these toadies would have ceased their mewling and melted into the darkness with their ill-gotten gain. But these men of means were determined that one of their own should succeed William the Glib, and they set about searching for a worthy successor from among their own ranks.
But failing to find even one among them deserving, they conspired to make George the king. By now they had determined they could take advantage of his simple nature to surreptitiously secure even greater wealth and power. And thus it shall ever be in the machinations and intrigues of court.
But truth be made plain, George needed no great encouragement to believe himself ready for the throne. No, he had decided, it was well nigh time for him to rise above his present station as Prince of Texas, one of the largest principalities of the kingdom, a place as alien as California, but with even more weapons.
Prince George had ruled Texas as he had lived his life, that is to say, not wisely, but well enough to get re-elected. This alone made him desirable to those who saw his ascendancy as the surest path to wealth and power beyond all need, decency and their wildest dreams. And thus it was that Prince George became King George III, ruler of the most powerful and profitable nation the world had ever known.
Never one to overtax himself, George spent the first days of his reign reveling in his victory, refreshing himself far from the madness at Court. At long last, he would be found worthy by his father, at long last, the whispers inside his soul would be quieted, at long last he would find redemption, at long last he would achieve the bright future promised him by the prophet on that long ago seashore stroll.
But it was not to be, for Fate began to conspire against him. While George dallied and read My Pet Goat, one the few books fit for his understanding, assassins from far-off shores attacked the kingdom and brought down the Twin Towers of Commerce that symbolized all the massive wealth that had been accumulated during the reign of William the Wiser. What now? What could he do to redeem himself now? Standing in the rubble, King George rallied the kingdom and the world and vowed to pursue the assassins to the ends of the earth.
But all the king’s horses and all the king’s men could not put things back together again. Nor could they find the assassins hiding in the spider-holes that pocketed the far-off mountains. In his anger and frustration, King George again rallied the kingdom, and this time he invoked the sacred mantra that was always used to justified unlimited war: WMD. The kingdom, he warned, was threatened by a fire-breathing dragon with poisonous breath, a dragon that was about to leap the oceans to attack the kingdom again.
Were this story the stuff of legends, it might be written that George slew the dragon and all was once again well with the kingdom. But even in legends, the past is prologue to the future, and those who expect wastrels and sinners to suddenly become wisemen and saints, should confine their reading and politics to fairy tales.
But this is no fairy tale, Dear Reader, and in this story, the dragon grew larger and more venomous even as the coin from the country’s coffers and the blood of its battle-weary warriors were poured out into the desert sands.
Meredtih Charpantier - December 2, 2005 @ 4:36 am
So what do we do now. The American people need to figure out a way, in keeping with the tenure of the times, to “take their toys back and go home” Mr President, you are not playing fair. We need A tax revolt, a sit down strike, an impeachemnt proceeding. We need to overturn both houses..a boycott of the current administration, a liberator to step up to the job of liberating our forces from their dead end duties.. We the people need to straddle this rising ant-Bush tide and ride it in to shore. A shore as devestated and ravaged by this Adminstration’s woeful ways as any post tsunami beach head, any post flood wasteland. Which is precisely where we are needed to get cracking on the work of rebuilding. I’ll be watching here from the sidelines.
Good Luck.
Michael Herdegen - December 2, 2005 @ 4:07 pm
“Things can’t go on like this, they just CAN’T…
We need a Revolution !!
The bloodier, the better !!
I’ll be watching from over here… Good luck with that…”
Mercy me.
That was good for a chuckle.
lonbud - December 2, 2005 @ 6:58 pm
So good to see you haven’t completely abandoned the ship, Michael!
I had intended to answer Meredith on your behalf but just hadn’t found the space to do it yet today. Interesting, though, how you tweak the “quote” just a bit for the desired effect, eh?
More to come when I have a longer moment…
lonbud - December 3, 2005 @ 2:48 am
In the end, all I can say is — perhaps Meredith didn’t read that “I’ll be watching from the sidelines” line twice before she hit submit.
but, good for a chuckle, indeed.
Meredtih Charpantier - December 3, 2005 @ 2:19 pm
NO need to debate my revolutionary intentions. I haven’t begun to whip up any tracts, just musing from my distant shore ( not every one need be aware of) how timely it would be.
lonbud - December 3, 2005 @ 3:06 pm
Part of the problem here, Meredith, is that for far, far too many people the way things are is just fine. While some of us may see the wisdom, timeliness, and even necessity of a revolution vis a vis the controlling oligarchy, it’s just not bad enough for near enough people for that to happen.
As Michael has said before on this blog and elsewhere, conditions today are nothing near as bad across the depth and breadth of the society as they were in, say, the late 20s and 30s, or even the 70s and early 80s.
One thing that comes to mind is that bumper sticker one sees every so often here in the Bay Area: If You’re Not Outraged, You’re Not Paying Attention
America isn’t paying near as much attention to BushCo as it is to Angelina and Brad (for example), and absent a hurricane, tsunami, and terrorist attack hitting us simultaneously, I’m afraid we’ll just have to wait for the culture’s internal rot to work its slow, but inexorable magic.
In the meantime, the usual suspects will continue to enrich themselves at the public teat while the hoi polloi grow larger in girth, fall deeper in debt, and remain insatiably curious about the private lives of marginally talented entertainers.
Meredtih Charpantier - December 3, 2005 @ 5:02 pm
I know. And even Brad and Angelina can’t seem to get the boat rocking enough for people to start looking for alternative transportation.
As your cooperative “avocat du diable” pointed out, I am not an active member of the revolutionary party either. I do however catch a whiff of a general malaise on the part of the American people. Enough just might eventually be Enough. And though I don’t see people taking to the streets spontaneously to combat dangerous court appointments, I do wish there was a force on the ground who might know how to capitalize on this growing dissatisfaction. Didn’t there used to be an opposition party over there. I kno wit needed a makeover something hideous. But did the process turn out to be mortal. Has the political process completey and irrevocably annihilated the political activist. In’t there anyone over there up for the job.
It just seems that one good yank on that slippery slippery rug the current mob is hoaring away on , and they would all come toppling down. SO YANK.
I think the status quo types use that “its not as bad as …blah blah blah” as a very effective balm on the revolutionary psyche. Don’t buy it. It has indeed been worse, may get worse, is much worse elsewhere, and none of those are good reasons to allow this country to loose sight of every one of its founding principles. People. come on now. lob that balm right back at ’em. It could get better too. eh?
Though, for the moment, I am sorry, Michael, I am not in a position to be of much help.
and thanks Lonnie for coming to my defense
peace out
Tam O’Tellico - December 3, 2005 @ 11:43 pm
Michael, it is good to have you back, I was hoping you would find our ignorance irresistible. And a howdy to Meredith as well. Am I correct in assuming you are joining this fray from France?
And now back to the subject at hand. As I’ve said here before, with all this mis and mal feasance (a mis is as bad as a mal?), I will be very surprised if the Democrats don’t win either the Senate of the House in the midterm elections. And if they do, the congressional hearings will never end because there truly is so much corruption and incompetence to investigate. That is not entirely a good thing.
While I enjoy seeing the Tom Delays and Jack Abramofs of this world get their comeuppance, the fact remains that we have a country to run — a country that has serious problems like a prolonged war in Iraq, a growing terrorist threat, nuclear proliferation, inconceivable national debt, a disastrous healthcare system, corporate outsourcing, a disappearing middle-class — I could go on and on, but I’m getting too depressed.
But rather than actually address these problems, a Democratic Congress will find it much easier to play the blame-game and investigate the no-doubt monumental influence peddling, cronyism and corruption that has flourished under this administation.
From my perspective, the third worst thing about the trouble we find ourselves in is that it was all so predicitable. The second worst thing is that so many Americans couldn’t see that. Of course, that guaranteed the first worst thing — now we have to live with it and through it. But I don’t believe we’ve seen anything yet.
It really is too bad the Republicans couldn’t have lived up to their Contract with America and chose instead a Contract on America. It’s too bad because they have confirmed every cliche I have heard about the party of the rich and the connected.
If we don’t do something soon about the Congress/Corporate/K-Street Connection, I fear the republic is lost.
Michael Herdegen - December 4, 2005 @ 1:09 am
Thank you all for the kind words.
I will be very surprised if the Democrats don’t win either the Senate of the House in the midterm elections.
Prepare to be surprised.
Due to gerrymandering, a favorite pasttime of both major parties, there are very few really competitive seats. The Dems might narrow the GOP’s Senate majority to 52, and make some gains in the House, but a complete takeover of either is VERY unlikely – unless Cheney gets indicted. (Also VERY unlikely).
…inconceivable national debt…
A fairly low national debt, as the first world goes, (Italy and Japan have much higher debt/GNP ratios, and the Eurozone as a whole is in the ballpark with the U.S.), and in any case, national debt will continue to increase until at least 2030, when half of the Boomers will be dead.
Unless medical advances bring us closer to immortality over the next 25 years, in which case the debt will continue to increase until at least 2050.
My guess is that there’s a one-in-three chance of that occurring.
…a disappearing middle-class…
Yeah ?
Got any proof of that, or even just some examples ?
Home ownership in America is at AN ALL TIME HIGH, which seems to be a rather poor indicator of the middle class going away.
It really is too bad the Republicans couldn’t have lived up to their Contract with America and chose instead a Contract on America.
Heh.
A nice line, but of course hyperbole.
(And no attribution, not even an “as they say” ?)
Still, it is a shame that the Senate wouldn’t pass most of the nine-out-of-ten Contract items that the House passed.
Not sending a term-limit bill to the President REALLY ticked me off – corrupt bastards.
Tam O’Tellico - December 4, 2005 @ 8:25 am
Michael, I concede your point about aging Boomer’s skewing the deficit toward the red because of the commitments that have been made through SSS and Medicaid. All the more reason to adopt my SS reform plan:
1. A needs test for SS and medicaid benefits.
2. No upper income limit for FICA and medicaid deductions.
3. Raise retirement age to 70.
As I said, a simple plan that would likely carry us through the end of this century — a simple plan, and therefore, doomed to failure.
Interesting that you use home ownership as an example of a “rising middle class” but fail to attribute that to the statistical influence of boomers. As for the statistics you insist I must cite, I offer you instead the words of the 20th Century American philosopher Robert Zimmerman — “you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”.
Anyone who lives in the real world doesn’t need statistics to know that the middle class is taking a beating — or do you mean to say that all of the 45 million (a gross misunderestimation) without health care in this country are poor people? How interesting that fallen corporate giants like GM are now advocating health-care reform.
Certainly, we enjoy a material existence that is still miles ahead of the Third World, but the trend is down, not up. I know you are disinclined to put stock in his expertise, but Lou Dobbs is one of the traditional Conservatives who understands the consequences of the economics and politics of greed that is destroying the Middle Class. Most historians agree that the rise of the Middle Class fueled the economic ascendancy of Britain, and I would say that is just as obvious with America.
It saddens me to say that my son is likely to have less opportunity than I did, a first between American generations.
lonbud - December 4, 2005 @ 10:33 am
I tend to agree with Michael that the prospects are rather dim for Democratic majorities in either chamber of Congress after next year’s elections.
Gerrymandered districting and the levels of election fraud that Republicans have institutionalized over the past few election cycles will be partly to blame, but I put most of the responsibility for the Democrats’ failure to achieve greater electoral validation of their “policies” and “vision” on the party itself.
Harry Reid is the most flaccid opposition leader I have seen in my lifetime. John Murtha laid down the most awesome open-field block since the days of Jerry Kramer and Fuzzy Thurston, and the Dems took the ball and ran with it like Roy Riegels.
One bright spot is that the rabid freak Rick Santorum looks very vulnerable in PA, and it’s possible a few of California’s most reactionary right-wing nutjob representatives may be booted from the House, but, in general I think we should look for Congress to closely represent the very deep divide that BushCo has cleaved into our society.
lonbud - December 4, 2005 @ 1:20 pm
Here’s a few statistics on home ownership as an indicia of the health of America’s middle class, Michael:
In 1975 the percentage of Americans who spent more than a third of their income on home ownership was 2.8; in 2001 (latest figures available) it was 13.5.
The percentage of Adjustable Rate Mortgages being written today is well over 30%, with an all-time high of 36.5% having been acheived in March 2005. This despite the rise in ARM rates over the past year, and a narrowing spread between ARM and fixed rates.
Affordability is clearly the issue. The least affordable (i.e. most expensive) markets in the country have the highest percentage of ARM borrowers. The Federal Housing Finance board reported that in the third quarter of 2005 in the San Francisco MSA, 69% of borrowers used ARMs. In the San Diego market 62% of borrowers used ARMs. The average sale price associated with ARM loans versus fixed rate loans nationwide was also substantially higher at $409,600, versus $269,300.
The rise in interest rates coming up around the bend will lay waste to the fiction of BushCo’s ownership society. The massive weight of household debt being shouldered today by the vaunted American “middle class” is a ticking bomb that will destroy the lives and dreams of millions of American families, as well as the house of cards upon which the nation’s financial institutions have built their near-term fortunes.
As the Governator might say, “hasta la vista, baby.”
Michael Herdegen - December 5, 2005 @ 5:05 am
Tam O’Tellico:
As for the statistics you insist I must cite, I offer you instead the words of the 20th Century American philosopher Robert Zimmerman — “you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”.
Anyone who lives in the real world doesn’t need statistics to know that the middle class is taking a beating…
Which is why I insist on statistics.
We can debate about what conclusions can or should be drawn from a given set of statistics, or even analyze why the statistics might be flawed, and in what ways, but if we DON’T use statistics drawn from millions of experiences, from all over the nation, all we’re left with is personal impressions, which clearly vary GREATLY.
In the “real world”, the middle class is THRIVING, not getting handed a beating, so apparently you CANNOT tell which way the wind is blowing without a weatherperson.
One example: The summer/fall “employee pricing” sale by both of the American auto companies, plus a German one, two Japanese, and one Korean auto company.
TENS OF MILLIONS of American households picked up new vehicles at 15% – 25% off, saving collectively TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
While many “poor” people definitely benefitted, and no doubt some “rich” people picked up a few luxury and near luxury vehicles while they were cheap, (especiallly SUVs, which were in some cases discounted by $ 10,000), the vast bulk of those vehicles were purchased by, and the savings realized by, the middle class.
Since when is getting a NEW car at the “insider’s price” the same as getting a beating ?
Another example: Unemployment is officially at 5%, and that includes teenagers, whose skills are low or nonexistent, and whose unemployment rate is over 15%. By itself, that’s GREAT.
However, if we subtract teenagers, and only look at those 20+ years of age, of all races, AND even if we include the half-million “discouraged” workers, who don’t believe that there are any jobs for them to find, unemployment among adults of all races is 3.3%.
Where in there do you find a beat-down ?
You could, as lonbud has in the past, just assert that the gov’t is making those figures up, but if so, where did all of the money come from to buy those new cars ?
Where are the Hoovervilles, or if you prefer, the Bushvilles ?
Even lonbud acknowledges that “conditions today are nothing near as bad across the depth and breadth of the society as they were in […] the 70s and early 80s.”
It saddens me to say that my son is likely to have less opportunity than I did, a first between American generations.
That’s a pretty big statement, and completely unsupported. Think of those born into the Great Depression – no doubt their parents thought exactly the same thing.
However, a kid born in 1931, when things seemed extremely bleak, entered the workforce in the 50s, when American relative superiority was at its peak.*
Think of those born into the American Civil War: Their parents were likewise fearful.
While I suspect that I cannot convince you that you’re wrong, perhaps you can draw some comfort from the fact that I am 100% positive that your son will have opportunities that you haven’t dreamt were possible. He might design new creatures to be brought into existence through genetic engineering, he might design entire universes for virtual reality dwellers, he might emigrate to Mars…
At the very least, you must realize that you could be wrong.
How interesting that fallen corporate giants like GM are now advocating health-care reform.
GM is advocating health-care reform as a way out of the situation that THEIR OWN past bad decisions have landed them in – GM is now America’s leading health-care provider, at a cost that’s killing the company.
However, again, GM management was responsible for putting the company in that position, over decades of poor decision-making.
— or do you mean to say that all of the 45 million (a gross misunderestimation) without health care in this country are poor people?
No, I’m saying that NOWHERE NEAR 45 million people are without health-care insurance, and even those without insurance are NOT “without health care” – emergency rooms are required to treat them.
What Health Insurance Crisis? – By David Gratzer
lonbud:
Yes, we’re spending more on housing, but we’re CHOOSING to do so.
In 1975, the average home was 1200′ sq.; now, it’s over 2200′ sq.
If we bought yesterday’s homes, we’d be spending yesterday’s percentage of income.
I agree that the housing bubble and use of ARMs and “no down” mortgages is worrisome, and I’ve written extensively about such, but to say that the massive weight of household debt being shouldered today by the vaunted American “middle class” is a ticking bomb that will destroy the lives and dreams of millions of American families, as well as the house of cards upon which the nation’s financial institutions have built their near-term fortunes is a vast overstatement.
There are perhaps 50 local and metro areas that are substantially overvalued, not the nation as a whole.
Most people have little to worry about.
Further, people are CHOOSING to buy vastly overpriced homes in San Fran, San Diego, Las Vegas, Miami, Boston, etc. They could just rent, or move elsewhere. If they want to own a home in those areas so badly that they’re willing to assume a considerable market risk to do so, who are we to tell them that they cannot ?
And, when things DO go south, it won’t affect everyone. As long as they can afford to make the mortgage payment, and don’t want to move, it doesn’t really matter if their home is worth $ 40,000 less than what they paid for it. Additionally, anyone who sticks it out for a decade will be made whole.
Among those who ARE affected, it’s going to be very painful, but rather few will have their “lives and dreams destroyed”. We’re not talking about Okies during the Dust Bowl.
Even those who might have to declare bankruptcy will qualify for new mortgages within three years.
As for the financial institutions, fewer than a third of mortgages are retained by the originating institutions, and the rest are bundled and sold on secondary markets.
Again, a market collapse in those 50 overheated areas will be very painful, but it’s unlikely, in and of itself, to cause any large business to fail.
What it MIGHT do is expose some managerial weaknesses that had been lost in the blizzard of easy money.
The bottom line, in my opinion, is that a collapse in the housing market will lead to somewhat reduced consumer spending, and therefore shave a percentage point or two off of GNP growth, but it’s unlikely to result in a recession or increased unemployment.
Michael Herdegen - December 5, 2005 @ 5:11 am
* While American superiority in 2005 is absolute and unchallenged, between 1945 and, say, 1952, American economic and military might was perhaps THREE TIMES as great as the next-best nation or bloc of nations.
Michael Herdegen - December 5, 2005 @ 10:36 am
U.S. Goals for Iraqi Forces Meet Success and Challenges in Najaf (EDWARD WONG, 12/03/05, NY Times)
lonbud - December 5, 2005 @ 8:06 pm
Michael, I think you should invite Tam, Meredith, myself, Bubbles (where ya been?), and every other down-in-the-mouth moonbat liberal who looks at the world today and sees anything less than a bright and shiny future filled with ease and comfort and security for most (if not all) reasonably intelligent, hardworking, honest people, over for a holiday soiree — so we can drink the kool-aid egg nog and put to rest the nattering nabobs of negativism that plague us so.
Michael Herdegen - December 5, 2005 @ 9:24 pm
[A] bright and shiny future filled with ease and comfort and security for most (if not all) reasonably intelligent, hardworking, honest people…
That’s a reasonably good description of what will be, and even better, stupid and/or lazy people will ALSO live lives of ease and comfort, (although not as comfortable, of course).
Don’t be shy, drink up.
Tam O’Tellico - December 5, 2005 @ 11:13 pm
There is a wide body of evidence, evidence recently alluded to by Bill “Hoof in Mouth”Bennett, that statistically proves an increase in the abortion rate results in a decrease in the crime rate. Based on statistics, I assume that Michael is either in support of crime or abortion.
Yes, middle-class Americans can now be treated like genuine GM employees — though given GM’s treatment of its employees, I’d be a bit concerned about the price of parts and repairs somewhere down the road.
But at least for the moment they can enjoy deep discounts on new cars, while 30,000 GM employees are losing their jobs and their health benefits — and there’s much more to come at both GM and Ford. I suspect Michael will consider this heresy, but this dark future was predicted quite accurately by Michael Moore in his first film, Roger and Me.
Instead of quoting statistics, ask the former auto-workers in Flint if they think things are improving for the middle class.
Instead of a golden parachute worth $10 million a year or more, former GM head honcho Roger Smith should have been run out of town on a rail. The pig-headed neanderthals at GM should be studied in every business school in America as an example of how not to run a business. The whole fiasco is an example of shortsightedness of monumental proportions.
And lest anyone think me a Moore-On, the auto-workers and their unions share responsibility for this American tragedy. I’ve been a union member, I know the drill.
On the other hand, I also know that without unions or the threat of them, there would be no overtime, no health insurance, no vacation pay, no job security and no pensions — except for Roger and Them. And I also know that not so long ago, people died so that my generation could enjoy a small portion of the lavish benefits routinely enjoyed by executives and other misundermanagement, advantages that are now being stolen away under the guise of the global economy. Methinks me hears a giant sucking sound.
I don’t pretend to be an expert on economics or statistics, but I do have two eyes and one rapidly slowing brain. And I see that despite the statistics, every one of the middle-class families I know now has to have two wage-earners to live as well as the could on one salary in the Sixties. And they have less health care and other benefits. And the trend is clearly down.
And speaking of health care for everyone, I invite Michael to drop whatever health care coverage he presently has and take advantage of that health care system he offers as being “available to everyone in emergency rooms”.
lonbud - December 5, 2005 @ 11:42 pm
Tam, you don’t understand: people choose to live in multi-wage earning families today because they want to bask in the luxury of an additional thousand square feet of living space.
Americans are wild and crazy guys, man, and we choose to have an average of 12 credit cards per family, living well beyond our means, in life-affirming bravado, thinking health insurance is for suckers and the really rich — and if we ever really need some medical attention, they have to give it to us for free.
If we want to live this way, where is government’s right or responsibility to have it any other way? Don’t you know we live in the wealthiest, most powerful country ever?
Do you have any idea how much we save by snapping up corporate America’s vast over-production of things like automobiles, airplane tickets, and electronic gew gaws? Look at these rock-bottom prices we’re loading onto our ever-expanding mountains of consumer debt — this— is what makes us great and provides all those jobs those multi-wage earning families want.
One hand feeds the other, and we are just going to keep getting fatter and happier all the time, bro. Shit is gonna be so cool, you have no idea.
And the weather’s gonna be fine, too.
Tam O’Tellico - December 6, 2005 @ 8:17 am
Sounds like the new Roaring Twenties to me, to be followed by the new starving Thirties, to be followed by the new warring Forties, to be followed by the new conforming Fifties — can I just be frozen and reawakened in the new loving Sixties?
Peace and Love,
Old Hippie
Tam O’Tellico - December 6, 2005 @ 7:08 pm
Getting back to the subject at hand, let’s talk about sex.
I find it astounding that the same people who went ballistic because Clinton claimed he didn’t do sex don’t seem to have the slightest concern about claims by this administration that they don’t do torture. Clearly, they do, and they dismiss “liberal” objections to torture with the same sort of wink and nod that is usually given to adolescent males who engage in sex.
It seems my argument may have come full circle, save that nobody died when Clinton dallied. But maybe in the end, war is about sex, a substitute for those who aren’t getting any. Maybe for these particular aging adolescents, war is a penis thing, a sad sort of video game with real toy soldiers. Maybe all this is proof of a deeper connection between sex and violence.
Just to complete this perverse thought — I wonder what would have happened if George the Elder had pulled-out. No, not out of Iraq, he wisely did so. Maybe it would have been equally wise if he had pulled-out just before Junior was conceived.
End of mad metaphor
lonbud - December 7, 2005 @ 1:18 am
It’s worse than you think, Tam. There’s a couple more seeds in this generation of the dynasty yet. It would be interesting to find the twins overseeing the program during all the ease, and comfort, and security Michael sees in our future.
Then there might be sex.
Michael Herdegen - December 7, 2005 @ 4:16 am
Tam O’Tellico:
In that context only, yes, I am in favor of more crime.
Crimes are typically committed by young(er) men, and if the choice is no crime or no children, then I choose crime.
Speaking of choice, lonbud, are you speaking tongue-in-cheeck, and TRULY believe that Americans aren’t choosing their current lifestyles, or do you just dislike individual decision-making ?
I agree that most people choose FOOLISHLY, but I also believe that the solution is education, not socially-enforced lack of choice… Especially since “socially-enforced lack of choice” ALWAYS gets down to gun-barrels.
See the American Prohibition and the Chinese “one-child” policy.
Tam, Michael Moore may have predicted GM’s demise, but even back then one hardly had to be an Oracle for that to make sense. In fact, what’s surprising is that it’s taken this long for GM to crack.
Further, Moore isn’t a bad filmmaker when he sticks to the facts – the problem is that he’s become increasingly deranged. Even Moore admits that F-911, for instance, is propaganda, and not a strict accounting of the facts.
The pig-headed neanderthals at GM should be studied in every business school in America as an example of how not to run a business. The whole fiasco is an example of shortsightedness of monumental proportions.
You know it, brother.
Those are NOT overstatements, if anything they aren’t vehement enough.
[T]he auto-workers and their unions share responsibility for this American tragedy.
Oh so true. They essentially sold their long-term futures to the American South, Mexico, Korea, Japan, and China, in return for another few good years now.
What’s happening to auto workers is a shame, but not a surprise, and in any case, why would you believe that what’s happening to the workers in any ONE company, city, or industry is representative of the nation as a whole ?
LOOK at the nation as a whole, and Flint, MI doesn’t spring to mind as definitive.
And speaking of health care for everyone, I invite Michael to drop whatever health care coverage he presently has and take advantage of that health care system he offers as being “available to everyone in emergency rooms”.
Been there, done that.
Given that the price was zero, I was very satisfied with the care that I got, and in fact I haven’t been treated any better the few times that I’ve gone to the emergency room WITH insurance.
Your milage may vary.
lonbud:
[P]people choose to live in multi-wage earning families today because they want to bask in the luxury of an additional thousand square feet of living space.
Correct.
Why else do you believe that we’re buying larger homes ?
Americans […] choose to have an average of 12 credit cards per family, living well beyond our means…
Also correct.
Who’s forcing us to carry an average of $ 8,000 in credit card debt, and to buy big-screen TVs and Ski-Doos ?
…thinking health insurance is for suckers and the really rich…
Only about twenty million people think that, about 7% of the U.S. population – hardly representative.
— and if we ever really need some medical attention, they have to give it to us for free.
Correct.
If we want to live this way, where is government’s right or responsibility to have it any other way?
In a democracy, ultimately, what we want, we get.
And we want what we’ve got.
Don’t you know we live in the wealthiest, most powerful country ever?
Correct.
EVER, and that’s a long time. At least ten thousand years, since the first towns were begun.
Do you have any idea how much we save by snapping up corporate America’s vast over-production of things like automobiles, airplane tickets, and electronic gew gaws? Look at these rock-bottom prices we’re loading onto our ever-expanding mountains of consumer debt …
Those “mountains” of consumer debt are actually quite managable. People are loading up on debt because it’s RATIONAL to do so. If someone wants to lend you money at 7%, why say no ?
…provides all those jobs those multi-wage earning families want.
Tam: …every one of the middle-class families I know now has to have two wage-earners to live as well as the could on one salary in the Sixties.
Yes, Americans CHOOSE to work multiple jobs, to get a lot of goodies.
If we all lived a 50s lifestyle, with small homes, one car per family, and decent-but-not-great healthcare, we COULD get by on 50s levels of income, one job (or less) per family, etc.
Really, it doesn’t even take living a 50s lifestyle, just a dedication to thrift.
All four of my married siblings (with four to seven children apiece) get by on just one job per household, and those jobs have solidly middle class wages, with only one being more than slightly above the median wage for Americans.
They suffer for nothing – they own decent homes, drive late-model vehicles, take vacations…
It can be done, and fairly easily.
I have no idea why Tam’s acquaintances feel it necessary to hold two jobs per household, unless they’ve suffered misfortunes, or have no skills and thus earn low wages.
Or maybe they like massive homes and plenty of new cars.
Shit is gonna be so cool, you have no idea.
Correct, on both counts.
And the weather’s gonna be fine, too.
Correct.
Tam O’Tellico - December 7, 2005 @ 7:19 am
L: And the weather’s gonna be fine, too. (thinly veiled sarcasm)
M: Correct. (thinly reasoned response)
T: Especially in Florida and on the Gulf Coast (plain old sarcasm based on weather service predictions for 06 and beyond)
Tam O’Tellico - December 7, 2005 @ 7:38 am
L: It would be interesting to find the twins overseeing the program during all the ease, and comfort, and security Michael sees in our future.
Don’t know if I mentioned this, but sniveling, cowardly military recruiters have called my house and bypassed me to speak directly to my son (he was only 16 the first time they pulled this stunt). Should there be any future calls, he has been instructed to tell them he’ll be down to volunteer right behind the Bush twins.
Such outrageeous behavior is authorized and substantially financed under a little-known rider in the No Child Left Behind Act, while most of the rest of the provisions of that pompous but counter-productive Act is unfunded or underfunded. This and so much more is why I have no use for this double-speaking, back-stabbing facist-leaning administration.
We shall soon see how many Americans are willing to trade freedom for false security and to trade constitutional democracy for continual corruptiion and cronyism.
lonbud - December 7, 2005 @ 9:42 am
Michael:
if the choice is no crime or no children — who said that has to be the choice?
With respect to the statistical evidence Tam cited, the choice need only be whether society should opt to affect the general level of crime in concert with forming abortion policy.
Given the evidence of reduced crime in the presence of access to abortion, many a reasonable person would accept a social policy making abortion accessible. Individual persons would then be free to choose whether or not having one meets the needs of their particular circumstances.
One thing I have noticed about people who tend to side with the so-called conservative point of view on issues such as this one, is a desire for all-or-nothing solutions to social policy questions. It’s not a very helpful conceit, IMHO.
do you TRULY believe that Americans aren’t choosing their current lifestyles, or do you just dislike individual decision-making?
I’m all for individual decision making, but I’m also for collective decision making. I’m also for making corporations and institutions responsible for the deleterious effects on society and the environment brought about by decision making that leads individuals to screw up their lives and their communities.
Along those lines, I believe in things like placing regulations on developers making it more costly and less profitable for them to develop open space; likewise in incentives for them to improve and sustain existing infrastruture and development.
As a general rule, I don’t believe we need more of much; we need better of a whole lot.
lonbud - December 7, 2005 @ 1:25 pm
Here’s a link for your consideration (speakers on):
http://www.adcritic.com/interactive/view.php?id=5927
Put it into the prediction matrix and see where it fits in Michael’s rosy view of the future.
Michael Herdegen - December 8, 2005 @ 3:27 am
As a general rule, I don’t believe we need more of much; we need better of a whole lot.
Agreed.
Bubbles - December 9, 2005 @ 12:22 am
Tonight I stopped-by wondering if Michael had returned and how traffic is in general. It looks like things are back to baseline. I don’t have much to add except a couple of thoughts on Real Estate. Something I’ve been thinking about lately. So, I’m no expert but it appears to me that multiplicities of factors are at work in the current Real Estate market. Some are;
1) New financing products. 10 years ago when there were no negative amortization mortgages and high-leverage ARMs sellers offered 2nds to the buyers. Today banks offer products that supplant that market. They use these products to absorb leverage and risk that sellers previously shouldered/profited from.
2) Banks are willing to take a seemingly more risky approach to qualification. However upon a deeper look what I believe you find is that they’re applying new models of what constitutes risk. They are in essence using a self-reinforcing system that maps wages to prices within brackets. Thus they themselves create housing demand in price ranges. Which in turn reinforces prices. The price ranges map to the prevailing local wages. In ‘high-demand’ markets they help to create (lets call it one standard deviation) they will lend money to a buyer with little or no down payment, poorly documented income (stated only) and middle of the road credit –but–, only to a point. Meaning they’ll lend against a property in this manner only in the ‘power ally’ of the market. Not even on the higher side of the power-ally (2 standard deviations). Thus they look to the fact that lending practices in the industry will support a market within certain price/wage ranges. In this sense I think you’ve got to give Michael some points on his argument. More middle-income people can buy houses/or in California condos. In our market here in the Bay Area it seems like anything can sell for $500-700K and anyone can buy it. The problem becomes you can’t find anything for that money you want.
3) If a buyer wants to borrow over $1M the whole game changes. You need a substantial down payment. The required percentage of the purchase price and your rate over the interest rate indexes will all key off your ability to document your income, assets and credit. So unless you’ve got equity from a previous RE transaction or a cash cow income you’re shit out of luck in buying an actual decent house.
4) Sure, buyers and banks are leveraging up the market but the banks get increasingly cautious as the price of these homes climbs. I’m not saying that > $2M houses don’t sell/get financed; rather the buyers are showing up with a pile of cash at the door. So the banks risk is limited which in turn should help add stability to prices now that they’ve rallied so much.
5) I’m left wonder what a Real Estate crash looks like 10%? 20%? > than that seems very hard to imagine indeed. Yes rates may climb but if you can make your payments you can theoretically survive. Which begs the question, over what timeframe? And then what, do we go back to a ‘normal’ 2-5%/year appreciation?
6) I think the bottom-line is that without wage growth or further declines in rates the price increases will be limited to non-existent but the market may stabilize within 10% of where it is now as a result of finding a new equilibrium based on new lending practices, products and the whacky inflation in prices induced by the fed’s pumping over the last few years. Perhaps I’m kidding myself?
7) Lon there are forces that we’ve discussed in the economy, which also put negative pressure on interest rates. Those forces haven’t entirely vanished. Sure the Fed. has pumped and pumped and pumped and is now throttling back but if the economy slows the gas peddle is still within reach, or at least the increases will stop.
Final thought. I know we have short memory’s and we’re probably all doomed but a portion of what keeps life interesting is the recognition that –its exactly that thinking that the enemy is banking on– 😉
Bubbles
Michael Herdegen - December 9, 2005 @ 5:13 am
In the Southern California real estate collapse of the 90s, in real, inflation-adjusted terms, the median selling price for homes drifted down to 75% of what they were before the crash, and depending on location, it took between 10 – 12 years for prices to recover to their previous levels.
Then, after Bush the Younger was elected, prices skyrocketed, making (almost) millionaires out of middle class schlubs lucky enough to buy & hold homes from ’95 onward.
(No, there was no connection between Bush’s victory and SoCal real estate appreciation (that we know of)).
In a recent multi-nation study of real estate crashes commissioned by the Fed, the median decline in prices was 33%.
So, for the reasons that Bubbles lists, it seems unlikely that real estate prices will fall by more than 25% in the hottest markets, and much less than that in MOST markets, since most aren’t very overheated.
And, that might not begin to happen until ’07 anyhow, and is likely to take several years to play out.
Michael Herdegen - December 9, 2005 @ 5:54 am
Here is the Southern California data:
http://www.ocalmanac.com/Economy/ec37.htm
Adding the effects of inflation, median home sales prices declined:
In San Diego by 21.5%
In Riverside/San Bernardino by 29%
In Orange County by 30%
In Los Angeles by 34%
In Ventura County by 37%
Here is the Fed study:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/841/ifdp841.pdf (PDF)
Tam O’Tellico - December 9, 2005 @ 8:17 am
Well, I’m happy to see that W is being credited with the SoCal real-estate boom. So how can we can credit or blame? Individual choices, thank you.
In fact, I predicted just such a thing when the dot.com bubble burst and corporate scandals scared off newbies in the stock market.
Investors, particularly empty-nest middle-class boomers, wanted something more substantial than Enron or WorldCom or even GM or AOL/Time-Warner for that matter. Rather than a piece of paper or an electronic impulse, it’s always more satisfying to have an asset you can touch and feel like gold — let alone have an asset like a luxurious and spacious home to live and entertain in.
And as I said before, some of this boom has to do with the trend toward “cavism” when the world outside that ‘cave’ is increasingly perceived as alien and hostile. In many ways, the cave-home is becoming like a video game, a place to play games and control your own environment. Virtual reality, indeed.
Tam O’Tellico - December 9, 2005 @ 8:27 am
Addendum:
BTW, Bubbles, having made the acquaintance of several high-powered attorneys and bankers in Orlando, I can tell you one way that jumbo mortgages are financed. Lawyers escrow huge sums of thier client’s money, but they are legally prohibited from earning interest from those escrow accounts. However, there is nothing to prevent a bank from making a sweetheart low-interest home loan to a lawyer who chooses to keep his escrow accounts with that bank.
A far more obvious version and illegal version of this scam is what brought down noble Duke Cunningham in CA. He got caught by selling his home to a defense contractor at an inflated place. The contractor later sold it at a substantial loss, and wrote the bribe off as a cost of doing business. Proving that even in CA, there are limits to Let’s Make A Deal.
lonbud - December 9, 2005 @ 10:20 am
Tam: To be fair, Michael made the disclaimer stating that Dubya just happened to be standing around during the recent pop in Cali home prices, crediting him in no way with said event.
In reality, the boom in California real estate began well before Junior’s installation in ’01, and it’s only been in the last few years that the bubble expanded to proportions indicating “irrational exuberance.”
The “collapse” in the 90’s was in actuality a very short-lived affair, and the fortunate schlubs to whom Michael refers had a very small window of time in which to set themselves up as real estate millionaires.
It should also be noted that during the entire time of the boom of the past decade or so, interest rates were declining steadily, giving homeowners increasingly lighter mortgage loads to tote as the equity valuations of their private Idahos grew, and they had multiple opportunities for re-fi cash-outs.
It’s been an impressive run, indeed.
The coming “collapse” will be a very different kind of affair.
I won’t dispute in any way Michael’s and Bubbles’ contention that the floor of the adjustment will be somewhere in the 20% – 30% range. And Bubbles is also correct that there are certain forces loose in the economy (namely a central banking establishment and political oligharchy that will put off as long as humanly possible the necessary corrections to monetary policy that would bring risk and value back into proper alignment) that will tend to exert downward pressure on rates.
However, as a general rule, homeowners can look to an environment over the next ten to twenty years of stagnant to deflating home equity valuations, and increasing mortgage debt loads.
As in everything, the strong (as well as the fortunate) will survive. But I daresay the next generation of real estate millionaires will have plenty of properties to choose from and lots of time to put their chips on the table.
lonbud - December 9, 2005 @ 10:29 am
Uhh, and speaking of it’s always more satisfying to have an asset you can touch and feel like gold, check the latest news on the Yellow Metal.
Bubbles - December 9, 2005 @ 1:33 pm
It may be time to rotate those radius bones and spin those hands from palm-in to palm-out pal.
lonbud - December 9, 2005 @ 2:06 pm
Well, you know the old saying: cut your losses, let your winners run. I picked up a little put insurance on the break of the quarter century high, but I’ll wait for a good sell signal before letting my longs go.
One day not too long from now Gold is going to look cheap at $500 an ounce.
Tam O’Tellico - December 9, 2005 @ 9:56 pm
My apologies to Michael, but believe it or not my Bush faux pas was a typo — I was in fact attempting to commend Michael. O, the shame of fast fingers and a slow mind.
Yes, I’m aware that gold is regaining its lustre and I’m willing to attribute a lot of this “odd” investing to the dot-com/corporate-scandal fiasco. I mean, if you can trust Wall Street or GM, who you gonna trust?
The great thing about gold as an asset is that it doesn’t require annual fees or mainenance. Come the next great depression, however, it’s owners may require a good twelve-guage pump and be prepared to use it.
On the other hand, gold bugs tend to be a sign of irrationality, too — I’m beginning to see a lot of people in this backwater acting as crazy as they did with the Y2K end of the world scenario. Hey, it’s only money.
Michael Herdegen - December 9, 2005 @ 11:45 pm
Gold will probably be a good investment long-term, as nations attempt to inflate their way out of their demographic problems, but that won’t get into full swing for another ten – fifteen years.
$ 530 gold seems a bit ahead of itself, especially with oil coming down.
lonbud - December 10, 2005 @ 10:58 am
Oil is in a clear uptrend dating back over 4 years, with very strong support between $50 and $55 a barrel. Coming down? Not soon, and not far, in my estimation.
As for the yellow metal, having broken through a quarter century high, it’s only natural to expect an increase in price volatility. Savvy investors will be buying the dips.
I believe Michael is conservative by at least half in acknowledging nations’ attempts to inflate their way out of their demographic problems.
Michael Herdegen - December 10, 2005 @ 4:29 pm
There’s a LOT of new oil production that’ll be coming on-line over the next half-decade.
While I don’t expect $ 30 oil again, I also don’t see oil going over $ 50, except for short-lived spikes.
Michael Herdegen - December 11, 2005 @ 10:59 am
Dec. 8, 2005
MEMPHIS — In an unusual case of mistaken identity, a woman who apparently thought a block of white cheese was cocaine was charged with trying to hire a hit man to rob and kill four men.
The woman also was mistaken about the hit man. He turned out to be an undercover police officer.
Jessica Sandy Booth, 18, was arrested over the weekend and charged with four counts of attempted murder and four counts of soliciting a murder. She was jailed on $1 million bond.
According to police, Booth was in the intended victims’ home last week when she mistook a block of queso fresco for cocaine — inspiring the idea to hire someone to break into the home, take the drugs and kill the men.
An informant described the plot to police, who arranged a meeting between Booth and the undercover officer.
Police said the undercover officer gave Booth some nonfunctioning handguns and ammunition, and they went to the home under police surveillance.
A search of the home revealed no drugs — only the white, crumbly cheese common in Mexican cuisine.
AP
Although this could have happened anywhere, it’s especially unsurprising in Memphis.
That’s one seedy metropolis.
Primary lesson: Don’t hang out with junkies. It never ends well.
In this case, apparently her first thought upon seeing the “drugs” was “How can I KILL FOUR PEOPLE (!!), so that I can enjoy myself for a few weeks – assuming that I don’t OD first…”
With any luck, she’ll do a dime before being paroled.
lonbud - December 11, 2005 @ 3:42 pm
Well, that’s an interesting tangent to go off on, Michael. Though, I’m curious as to why you find the story especially unsurprising in Memphis.
As opposed to, say, Detroit, or Washington DC, or Los Angeles, or New Orleans, Dallas, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Chicago, Miami, Charlotte, or any number of cities in America. What exactly is it you find so seedy about Memphis?
I don’t ask because I grew up there and know it well in all its many facets; I just find it curious that you would hang on that particular story of that particular town out of the thousands of stories of bizarre behavior produced all over America every day.
Michael Herdegen - December 12, 2005 @ 1:08 am
I just find it curious that you would hang on that particular story of that particular town out of the thousands of stories of bizarre behavior produced all over America every day.
I didn’t.
I came across it at random, thought that I’d share it, and mentioned that it happened in Memphis as an afterthought.
If I KNEW about all of the thousands of bizarre stories produced everyday, perhaps this wouldn’t be #1; but it might be.
I mean, c’mon, thinking that a block of cheese was a kilo of coke, and hiring a hit man, especially at the (usually) tender age of 18 ?
For bizarreness, that’s beaten only by the occasional report of a pregnant woman being killed, so that someone can perform a home cesarean and steal the baby.
It even beats the guy in Washington state who got killed while trying to have sex with a horse (that wasn’t even his, without permission, no less).
I’ve been to Detroit, Washington DC, Los Angeles, New Orleans, Dallas, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Chicago, Miami, Charlotte, and Memphis, some dozens of times, as well as hundreds of other cities and towns across the U.S., (and the world), so I have a pretty good store of experience to draw from when judging a place.
While it’s certainly true that almost everyplace has a run-down section or sections, some places seem vibrant, and others seem tired.
Atlanta, Budapest, Chicago, Dallas, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, Seoul, and Washington DC all have their rough spots, but the overall feel is one of prosperity and growth.
Memphis feels like its best days are behind it.
It may well be a great place to grow up, and to live now, but when driving around the city, the general sense is one of shabbiness, like one often finds in second-world places like Brazil and Hungary.
Not slum-like, but just… Tired. Lethargic.
Memphis fits in with Albany, Detroit, New Orleans (both pre- and post-Katrina), North Las Vegas, Saint Louis, Toledo, and several towns in Hungary that lost their reasons for being once Communism fell, and are filled with squat, drab-faced concrete buildings that are surplus to requirement.
Again, there are surely motivated, energetic people in all of the places that I’ve mentioned, and “hot spots” and areas of growth, but that’s not the overall impression.
Tam O’Tellico - December 12, 2005 @ 12:05 pm
It appears this forum has hit a new low. I’m sure the “alleged” perp was the butt of many jokes including of course when she had a mug shot made and someone couldn’t resist: “Say cheese”.
This episode reminds a bit of a friend who acquired a pit bull as a guard dog because suspcious characters keep trying to break in to his place. Wonder if it could possibly have anything to do with the fact that he is also the local supplier of weed? As my Daddy would have told him, you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.
Not to excuse either of these people’s behavior, but perhaps the cheesehead has had as tragic a life as my friend. I won’t go into his whole sad story here, but suffice it to say that he started out life lterally dumped in a garbage can and grew up to celebrate his 18th birthday on Hamburger Hill. Surely Michael could offer us the relevant statistics, but I’d say that gave him considerably less chance of a happy ending than say George W. Bush, a man who has had his only troubles with substance abuse.
Notice how cleverly I brought the discussion back to point?
lonbud - December 12, 2005 @ 10:54 pm
There are millions of sad tales among us humans. In fact, all of Life is predominately a tragic episode of pain and woe begotten of desire and repulsion in equal measure, both of which are vastly misunderstood — if not ignored — and which lead to unfilfilled potential (at best) and brief tenures of unremarkable achievement and colossal waste (in the main).
I don’t know that Budapest or any other town in Hungary scarred by squat, drab-faced concrete buildings that are surplus to requirement belongs in a consideration of seediness among American cities — why not mention places elsewhere featuring much the same? There are plenty to go around.
After all, here in the land of plenty it’s gleaming new buildings featuring the latest in high-tech outfiture that are surplus to requirement.
Be that as it may, I don’t know that anyone posting to or reading this blog would contend hanging out with junkies is a pleasurable or even amusing pastime; junkie culture is the same pretty much everywhere.
None of which should be taken as a defense against Michael’s pejorative take on the Home of the Blues.
When my parents moved there in the late 50s, Memphis was on a demographic and economic par with Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and St. Louis; it was well ahead of Charlotte, Jacksonville, Nashville, and Orlando.
Today Memphis would rank last among every one of those cities on any matrix of criteria.
The stagnant feel of Memphis today is a result of timidity and lack of vision among its (mostly) white, moneyed interests, and an endemic inability among the entire community to transcend the polarizing effects of race.
In fact, Atlanta stands fairly well alone among large American cities with a majority Black population to have produced a vibrant, modern, growing standard of living.
As to the “perp” in the tale that started this tangent, the President’s period as a party guy, or the “point” of any of this — as far as I’m concerned it’s all open season. If the discussion keeps going and we can get more voices to join in in time, I’ll find a measure of happiness in this mean old world.
Michael Herdegen - December 13, 2005 @ 1:13 am
In fact, all of Life is predominately a tragic episode of pain and woe begotten of desire and repulsion in equal measure, both of which are vastly misunderstood — if not ignored — and which lead to unfilfilled potential (at best) and brief tenures of unremarkable achievement and colossal waste (in the main).
Wow.
Are you a Dane, or a Slav ?
This is the crux of why we so often disagree (although apparently not about once-great Memphis). While all of that is certainly part of Life, I’d not say “All“…
…begotten of desire and repulsion in equal measure…
That’s my favorite part.
It’s so… Bleak.
It reminds me of an earlier era, when male and female roles were much more strictly defined.
lonbud - December 13, 2005 @ 5:18 pm
Irish and Lithuanian.
I have always felt a strong connection to my past lives, and survived my own high school and college dalliances with junkie culture by delving deep into the literature of ages when male and female roles were much more strictly defined.
My understanding of repulsion and desire, however, comes more from adult study of buddhist thought. And while my expression of it above may have come off as merely bleak, my own outlook on Life admits of great measures of joy and wonder and merriment and optimism.
Tam O’Tellico - December 13, 2005 @ 10:01 pm
Well, by reputation the Icelanders are the most diligently down of cultures — although I must say being married to a woman who is half Norwegian and having watched a few too many Bergman movies, the Scandanavians do rate pretty far down on the bon vivant scale. I don’t know, maybe it’s something about too-long winters or confronting the North Sea.
On the other hand, anyone who’s been to an Irish pub or ever seen or read Angela’s Ashes knows the Irish can be a bit of downer, too. Joke: When does an Irishman stop drinking? When he passes out.
The Polish and the Russians are also known for the love of the bottle, and the Lativians of my acquaintance are right up there, too. And it’s hard to top (bottom?) Native Americans for alcohol abuse. At least the Indians got even by giving the White Man tobacco.
Maybe that culture of booze helps explain the descent of Memphis. As a musician, I can tell you that singing the blues certainly promotes an unhealthy lifestyle. Drowning in one’s sorrow is also not very conducive to sound business practices.
Despair is hardly a prescription for success in any culture — unless you want to be an artist who is “discovered” after he’s dead and gone. I don’t know as though that made Van Gogh or Poe particularly happy, though (please note the excessive use of in-rhyme in this sentence).
I think I’ll go fix myself a Scotch on the rocks.